Since the rigged election and the standoff between Alassane Ouattara, the legitimate winner of the Ivorian election, and Gbagbo, in Ivory Coast in November 2010, and Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution that culminated with the people’s victory in January 2010, and the ouster of Hosni Mubarak, one of Africa’s most brutal dictators, just yesterday, I was earnestly following the events, at times, with extreme level of emotions as if I were a citizen of those countries. My whole family, my wife and our 14 years old daughter were engulfed, particularly, with the turn of events in Egypt and were constantly comparing what was going on in Egypt now to what happened in Ethiopia in 2005 and what should happen in Ethiopia going forward.
Although this is not a new finding, let me mention some of the similarities of the tactics that the Mubarak regime used to silence the demonstrations/uprising until a few hours earlier to his stepping down to what the Meles Zenawi used to silence opposition prior- and post- the 2005 election in Ethiopia:
• While Mubarak tried to belittle the uprising by calling the demonstrators as young people being manipulated by “sinister” and “terrorist” groups/ the Muslim Brotherhood, Meles Zenawi called the demonstrators in 2005 as “unemployed youth” manipulated by the opposition/Kinijit.
• Blocking the internet, mobile phones, and cable channels. Although there weren’t cable channels in Ethiopia then, the Woyane government blocked SMS, internet and independent newspapers than and continues to jam independent radios like the VOA and Deutsche Welle and independent TV channels like ESAT TV.
• Intimidating and blackmailing the international community and foreign governments as subversive agents and destabilizers in the hope of buying domestic support and dividing the local opposition.
• The complete lying of the state-owned media: TV, radio and newspapers, in reporting what was going on the ground, despite the people’s awareness of the events going by the hour.
• Superficial submission to negotiations with the opposition when the going got tough, as it happened with the TPLF thugs calling for unconditional negotiations on November 8, 2005, just to buy time.
• One striking difference that we witnessed was that the Tunisian and Egyptian armies were on the side of their people while that of the Ivorian and the Ethiopian were with their incumbent dictators.
What is to be learned? Every army of a dictator and the people under those dictatorships are learning from what is going on in their countries and other countries around the world, no matter what dictators do to deny them from accessing information.
By now, at least, we have witnessed that the international community always goes with “wind”: The perceived balance of power on the ground. We have seen how wavering the US government was, changing the statement by the day, reflecting what was going on the ground. They wanted to be part of history in Egypt rather than risk of being in the dust bin.
In Tunisia, it just took just one daring young graduate, Mohamed Bouaziz, who was frustrated of being unemployed, humiliated, to spark the anger of the masses who were going through similar experiences and ordeals. In Egypt, it took just one young Google executive, Wael Ghonim, to inspire the Egyptian masses to rally behind the cause of freedom and democracy.
I remember some Egyptians talking about of being shamed by the uprising of the Tunisians and their toppling down of their 23 old dictator, Ben Ali. I am sure there are millions of Ethiopians who feel being shamed by their Tunisian and Egyptian counterparts who were able to topple down their dictators.
I am also certain that the Ethiopian army is also learning from what is going on in West and North Africa of the people’s thirst for democracy, no matter how it is differently structured in Ethiopia. They also know that they can’t run away with massacring unarmed protesters for the second time if that happened in Ethiopia now. Given what has happened since the rigged election in Ethiopia in 2005 (the Kenyan and Zimbabwean case) and what is currently happening in Ivory Coast, North African and the Middle East, the TPLF thugs are also aware that they can’t run away with the kind of cracking down of a popular uprising they were able to afford in 2005 and its aftermath.
We have witnessed the staunchest ally of the USA, Egypt, in terms of terrorism and Middle East peace, crumbling in our face, and the USA sidelining it and pushing it towards its demise. As to me, Ethiopia’s significance to US’s foreign policy interests would by no means outweigh that of Egypt’s.
Also, as we witness waves of revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East against dictatorships, which western powers are following with intense interest and supporting, it would be impossible for them to deny Ethiopians similar support, if similar revolution arose in Ethiopia at this moment. Since foreigner can’t take the lead on this, it is up to us, Ethiopians to learn the lessons of our time and to take up the leads and initiate the revolution to set ourselves free.
