An Advice to Meles Zenawi: Exit Before it is Too Late

Mr. Zenawi, on your watch, you have seen the fate of the following dictators:
• Saddam Hussein: deposed and hanged
• Mohammed Gaddafi: dragged muddy and bloody and executed
• Hosni Mubarak:under public trial while on his bed
• Ben Ali: in exile is Saudi Arabia, under ICC warrant
• Abdullah Saleh:in the US,seeking treatment,and probably asylum too,butin vain
• Slobodan Millosovic: died, while on trial in the Hague
• Cahrles Taylor: under ICC trial
• Laurent Bagbo: under ICC trial
• Al Bashir: under ICC warrant
• Bashir al Asaad: no exit strategy yet
Like all of the above, your regime is characterized by brutal dictator ship, silencing of dissent through the use of force, marginalization of the public, inciting ethnic and sectarian violence, and promoting corruption. Particularly, after having learned that the public has rejected you in the 2005 election, you allowed by miscalculation, you have intensified cracking down on dissent in any form, and have been retaliating sections of the society that embraced the opposition.
While you have lost support, even in your traditional ethnic base, in Tigray, you purport to have won the 2010 election, by 99.6%. This is absurd, silly and contradictory, even to your own regime’s complaint of being dragged by “supporters of opposition and terrorists”.

The recent transfer of the nation’s land resource to foreigners, complete clamp down on journalists and opposition members is pushing the Ethiopian population to the limit. You may think you can contain the momentum of an Arab Spring like popular uprising in Ethiopia, just because you have highly bribed and loyal military commanders and multitudes of security and spying networks.

But, believe me, you have made the time ripe for a revolution to be born in Ethiopia. Also, don’t rely on your western enablers for your protection, just because you have jumped onto the anti-terrorism bandwagon. Beni Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saleh were all claiming to be fighting terrorists. The language of the west you rely heavily on will soon change as something on the ground emerges.
The Americans, know you are a dictator, as we can see from the annual State Department reports on Ethiopia, but sill might consider you the bulwark against terrorism, only until the rise of the Ethiopian people. Now, you have given them even more power to monitor your movement closely with the drone base you have provided them.

The moment Ethiopians become determined to depose you, no matter the amount of blood your armed forces will be willing to spill, the rhetoric from Washington will soon shift to demanding reform or to “step down” . You have seen this too, how America’s ties with Mubarak and Saleh, melted away in just a few weeks after the poplar uprisings in those countries. After he was deposed, that “friendly tyrant”, Saleh, was even refused entry into the United States for medical treatment. After intense negotiations they agreed to let him in but under condition that his stay be brief and confined to the hospital. What a disgrace for Saleh!

Poor Assad, who didn’t learn, from the mistakes of Mubarak and Saleh, is now trapped. He could have exited with a dignified face, had he negotiated in time to transfer power a transition government. He could have also saved the destruction of his country. Now with more than five thousand people killed, he has no way out.

Is there a hope, a model for you to emulate for a peaceful exit?

May be…..

The Apartheid South African regime of F. W. de Clerk, was a minority regime, that oppressed the majority black South Africans for many generations. The apartheid system killed, maimed and jailed thousands of black South Africans with impunity for years. Black South Africans were rendered homeless, jobless and worthless in their home country. De Clerk saw this minority dominance as unsustainable. In de Clerk’s eyes it is was expensive to see the continuous isolation of South Africa, it was expensive to continuously silence dissent, the minority had no security and peaceful future in the status quo. So he started negotiations with his staunch rival, Nelosn Mandela, while Mandella was still in prison, to release Mandella, to hold fair and free elections, and to avoid revenge even if the African National Congress (ANC) won the election. That was the BEST EXIT STRATEGY of the Apartheid regime.
Meles Zenawi, avoid this zero-sum game of you that is to eat you alive. Don’t fool yourself you will be a PM for life and your dictatorship will have no end. There is no point in accumulating wealth if you can’t inherit it to your children, or you can’t enjoy it at home or somewhere in exile.

There is no shame in admitting mistake and asking for forgiveness. Come to your senses and start a reconciliation process involving all actors in the Ethiopian society.

The 2011 Arab Springs: Lessons for Ethiopians

There were a number of popular uprisings against dictators that erupted in 2011 in the Middle Eastern and North African Arab countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. So far we have witnessed that at least the dictators on Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are gone, with Gadafi for good.

There are many common features in all these countries: the dictators ruled the people for decades with absolute power, stifling democracy, imposing state of emergencies; whether they were monarchies or otherwise, the rulers were closely knit by kinship, affinity and kleptocracy; they killed, maimed, jailed and forced into exile all those who dared to dissent; they divided their people and opposition along ethnic, tribal and sectarian lines; looted their countries’ resources and became tycoons on the back of their impoverished people.

Doesn't this sound familiar to the Ethiopian dictators? Aren't they their mirror images?

What else is common in those countries? Despite the sufferings of their people the dictators were all being propped up by Western democracies, in exchange for their oil or other security considerations.

People had to rise up and many lives had to be sacrificed, even just to attract western media attention. The people of those countries had to demonstrate that they have reached the point of no return to induce any regional or global intervention.

Unless they see any potential shift in the balance of power on the ground, none of the western powers will come to our rescue just on moral grounds. In politics and international relations, national interest takes precedence over morality. Even when there is an uprising and determination on the part of the opperessed people, they will not intervene until they see the signs of power tipping on the side of the opposition (Bahrain and Saudi).

Dictator Meles Zenawi, “the Ethiopian Caligula” is today the “darling of the West”, a “friendly tyrant” being propped up with injections of billions of dollars aid money and military support. Despite the siphoning of billions by the tyrant for personal enrichment, in amounts unheard in Ethiopian history, money is still being pumped into the dictator’s coffer. They might even rescue him, as they did with Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s deposed dictator, when the day comes.

But we still have to come together and rise up, learning the lessons from the Arab Spring. Change in Woyane's Ethiopia will not come through elections. Never!!! We have to rise up!!!

The Swedish Journalists Will be Released!

There is no doubt in mind that the Swedish jounalists, (Martin Schibbye and Johan Persson)sentenced by the TPLF kangaroo court to 11 years in prison will soon be released. I am sure they or their government will never plead for celmency. These journalists have the international community (their own government and other democratic nations) behind them to defend their rights as free journalists. We are already witnessing the position of US's Department of State aginst this ruling and that of the Swedish media demanding their government to advocate for the unconditional release of the two journalists.

I am glad that by proxy, this sentencing on the Swedish jounrnalists, will help all those TPLF enabler western governments to reflect on how arbitrarly the TPLF junta was handling the case of justice for multitudes of Ethiopians that were detained en-masse in TPLF detention camps since the junta came into power.

I am sure, it should be our duty to push for the release of Ethioipan journalists and other prisiners of conscience, as the west puts pressure on TPLF for the release of these two Swedish jounrnalists.