Dear Ethiopians Stand Your Ground: Seize the Moment

Woyane reported that it identified "two Arabs" during the Friday Anwar Mosque protest, who entered the country, and drove right from the airport to the mosque to distribute pamhlets to instigate havoc, but deported them back immediately. What a silly and white lie!!! Is this a move to label the rightful questions of Ethiopian muslmis as a mob instigated by foreign Al Qaida terrorists to destabilize Ethiopia? Who are these two Arabs? Where did they come from and where were they deported to? How could they be there just a few hours after Woyane's warning on ETV? Or are they Abdula Saleh's (a friend of Meles Zenawi) relatives sent from Yemen to pose as "terorists" to justify Meles's attack on Ethiopian Muslims? Woyane also claimed it has captured a group of terrorists comprised of people from Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, etc, in Kelem, Wollega. All the dictators that fall due to the Arab Springs had lamented similarily. The people's questions were labeled as mobs by few drunken or drugged youth, foreign terrosits, Al Qauida members and sypathisers, islamic fundamentalists, people inspired by destabilizing foreign media (in Woyane's case, the usual suspects: ESAT, VOA and Deutsche Welle), etc. It looks like that Ethiopians have defeated their fear and not giving in to Woyanes's intimidating and divisive tactics. Despite Woyane's Thursday ETV warning, our Muslim brothers came in 100s of thousands to voice their concers after their Friday prayer, at the grand mosque and other mosques in Addis. Andnet held a meeting in Wolaita Soddo. We have also witnessed people protesting in Dessie, Harar, Dire Dawa, Gambella, Gamo Gofa, Afar, Waldiba, Assasa, etc. The fear has now really moved from the people to the Woyane thugs themselves. They never had experienced such a concerted and widespread resistance all over the country at the same time. The people's questions are not even political yet. They are just demands for natural and inalienable rights for freedom of religion, association and to property. Woyane has realized that its mercenary militia can not strech across thousands of mosques and churches in the country to sielnce the voices and is trying to stop it through its usual initimidating and divisive tactics. Did I also hear that Woyane is ready to discuss with Andinet party with the help of groups from the Woodrow Wilson Center and diplomats from the American Embassy in Ethiopia, on issues of avoiding conflict? The usual tactics to buy time, at such critical momnets, as it did after the 2005 election with Kinijit. My dear fellow Ethiopians, let us stand our ground!!! Momentum is on our side! Let us clinch our freedom from the jaws of the Woyane junta. Never let this moment pass us!!!

Who is Next and Where?

Dear fellow Ethiopians, over the last few weeks, we have witnessed a renewed Woyane instigated displacement of Ethiopians of the Amhara ethnic group from Gura Ferda woreda in southwestern Ethiopia (I hate to call areas in Ethiopia by their ethnic names). That is so sad, scaring and intollerable!!! How can an Ethiopian of a certain ethnic group be denied his or her right to move, live, work, create wealth and establish themselves in different parts of the country? If this is not possible, why do we call ourselves Ethiopians after all? The reasons Mr. Zenawi, Mr. Shigute, or whoever, gave are unacceptable. If any of those guys whom they accused of destructing the environment in Gura Ferda are alleged to have committed crime, they have to be charged for the crime (if that is a crime under the law) and be convicted, sentenced, and serve their sentence, not be chased away from the region as if they are foreigners! I remember Woyane accusing Kinijit (CUD) of instigating hatred against Tigreans, during and after the 2005 election, particularly quoting Bedru Adem's words at the historic Kinijit rally on "Miazia 30" in Addis Ababa. Different ethnic groups of Ethiopia have been integrating and assimilating with each other through intermarriages and through working and living in different parts of the country they don't belong ethnically. I myself as an ethnic "Kembata", lived most of my life in different parts of the country, Oromigna speaking, Wolaitigna speaking, Hadiyigna speaking, Kembatigna speaking, Amharic speaking parts of the country, and had always felt comfortable and enjoyed my life in those parts of Ethiopia. In my choice of a wife, ethnicity never mattered, but love and understanding. My wife, for that matter is from an Amahara ethnic group. Woyane's Bantustization of Ethiopia is pushing the limit too far and disintegrating our country. I know there are multitudes of ethnic Kembatas in Sidamo, Wolayita, Gamo Gofa, Shashemene, Wonji and Metehara areas, and so many ethnic Amharas almost all over Ethiopia, and so many ethnic Tigreans almost all over Ethiopia, and so many ethnic Gurages all over Ethiopia, and so many ethnic Oromos, all over Ethiopia, etc. If Woayane's ethnic policy was in place when I was born, I wouldn't have moved any further than todays' ethnic Kambata capital, "Durame". Nor Hailemariam Desalegn, the current Foreign Minister, would have moved any further than "Soddo", nor Meles/Legesse Zenawi, from "Adwa". My fellow Ethiopians, we are at a dangerous cross road of history at this time. If we keep quiet in the face of what Woyane is doing right now, we don't know who is next in the current displacement cycle, the ethnic Kembatas in Wonji, Metehara, Nazreth, Arbaminch or Soddo; or the ethnic Amharas in Jinka, Hossana, Assela, Mekele, Jimma, or Nekemte; or the ethnic Oromos in Gondar, Bahirdar, Debrebirhan, Hossana, Areka, or Dessie; or the ethnic Tigres and Gurages, in Addis, Bahirdar, Gonder, Dessie, etc. It is time to stand united and resist this Bantustization!!!

Dear Ethiopians It Is Time to Rise Up in Unison

Muslims all over Ethiopia are rejecting Woyane's divide and rule tactics and are rising up in unison to protect thier freedom of belief and to stop the regime's interference in their religion. As we have witnessed during the Arab Springs, Ethiopian Muslims are also using the time after the Friday prayers as the platform to voice their opposition to Woyane's move to silence them. The central issue is not the wahabism, ahbashism or other "isms" woyane is trying to project, but just its desire to control and divide Ethiopian muslims and extending its grip on power, while muslims fight each other, and scaring believers of other religions in Ethiopia by projecting a myth that muslim extremest groups are bent to destroy them, and thereby gain their support. To make innocent followers of other religions believe this, woyane stooges have already burned churches and other sites of worship in different parts of Ethiopia. Woyane has demonistrated its will of imposing its power in the practices of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church (EOC) Synod, in selecting the Church's ptriarch, by politically appointing the woyane cadre, Paulos, as the patriarch of the EOC and populating the senior positions in the Church's leadership by ethnic Tigreans. The opposition to this interference by the laity was crushed through killings, jailings, and further removal of the leaders of the Church from their positions. Woyane has tried these tactics on Ethiopian Muslims too since its arrival in town. Now, the time has come for Ethiopian muslims to say enough is enough,in unison. It would have great consequences later if we, followers of other religions, standby and silently watch our muslim brothers and sisters being killed and jailed by woyane mercenaries. If we remain quiet now, we will be collaborators and conspirators in their peril. How can we claim we are one and united with our brother and sisters, if we keep silent when they are perishing? Quite a number of Christians gather in thousands of Churches every Sunday in all over Ethiopia. Now is the right time to use the Sunday Paryer as the platform to express our support for freedom and to oppose woyane's war against everything Ethiopian. All Ethiopians, let us stand in unison, Muslims, Christians, Jews, Traditional believers and non believers, and claim our right of freedom. Let us use the moment

Is Ethiopia Moving Towards a Militaristic or Developmental State?

Meles Zenawi has been bragging about rapid development and poverty reduction since TPLF’s grip of power in Ethiopia. Particularly, since the rejection of his rule in the 2005 election, Meles’ junta has been claiming consistently high levels of economic growth in the country. But a closer scrutiny of credible researches reveals that investment patterns of the government tell a totally different story.

Table 1. Trends in federal government budget allocations in selected African countries 2000-2007

Country Agri. Edu. Health Transp/Comm Social Defense Other*

Ethiopia 9.4 9.2 1.9 4.4 9.9 18.3 46.6
Ghana 0.5 15.1 4.7 1.2 0.0 2.1 76.3
Kenya 4.3 27.7 6.0 5.6 5.6 7.8 43.1
Malawi 5.0 18.2 12.2 4.1 7.0 2.6 50.9
Mozambique 5.1 20.1 12.9 15.4 N.A N.A 46.2
Nigeria 2.9 7.6 4.6 2.4 2.5 6.2 73.8
Uganda 3.9 18.7 10.7 9.6 2.9 10.0 44.1
Zambia 10.8 16.6 7.9 1.0 0.4 12.4 50.9

Source: IFPRI (Jan. 2012 Study Report)
*Other government functions including general administration, fuel and
energy, and manufacturing, construction and mining

From a cursory look at the above table, the following critical observations can be made:

 Ethiopia has by far the lowest investment in education (except Nigeria) and health and the highest investment in defense.

 Ethiopia’s defense allocation is almost twice the country’s allocation for education and health.

 The proportion Ethiopia allocates for defense is almost equivalent to the combined defense allocations of Ghana, Kenya, Malawi and Nigeria. Ghana is an African democracy now, and the other two had relatively better democratic elections.

While the basic building blocks for a nation’s development are its people’s education and health, it is ridiculous when Woyane puports to making Ethiopia a middle income country in the next decade, while it stands at the tail end even by African standards.

The government’s investment pattern and illicit financial flows shown in other reports tells us that this a regime destined to bleed the country dry by the hench of its military. Adios development.

An Advice to Meles Zenawi: Exit Before it is Too Late

Mr. Zenawi, on your watch, you have seen the fate of the following dictators:
• Saddam Hussein: deposed and hanged
• Mohammed Gaddafi: dragged muddy and bloody and executed
• Hosni Mubarak:under public trial while on his bed
• Ben Ali: in exile is Saudi Arabia, under ICC warrant
• Abdullah Saleh:in the US,seeking treatment,and probably asylum too,butin vain
• Slobodan Millosovic: died, while on trial in the Hague
• Cahrles Taylor: under ICC trial
• Laurent Bagbo: under ICC trial
• Al Bashir: under ICC warrant
• Bashir al Asaad: no exit strategy yet
Like all of the above, your regime is characterized by brutal dictator ship, silencing of dissent through the use of force, marginalization of the public, inciting ethnic and sectarian violence, and promoting corruption. Particularly, after having learned that the public has rejected you in the 2005 election, you allowed by miscalculation, you have intensified cracking down on dissent in any form, and have been retaliating sections of the society that embraced the opposition.
While you have lost support, even in your traditional ethnic base, in Tigray, you purport to have won the 2010 election, by 99.6%. This is absurd, silly and contradictory, even to your own regime’s complaint of being dragged by “supporters of opposition and terrorists”.

The recent transfer of the nation’s land resource to foreigners, complete clamp down on journalists and opposition members is pushing the Ethiopian population to the limit. You may think you can contain the momentum of an Arab Spring like popular uprising in Ethiopia, just because you have highly bribed and loyal military commanders and multitudes of security and spying networks.

But, believe me, you have made the time ripe for a revolution to be born in Ethiopia. Also, don’t rely on your western enablers for your protection, just because you have jumped onto the anti-terrorism bandwagon. Beni Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Saleh were all claiming to be fighting terrorists. The language of the west you rely heavily on will soon change as something on the ground emerges.
The Americans, know you are a dictator, as we can see from the annual State Department reports on Ethiopia, but sill might consider you the bulwark against terrorism, only until the rise of the Ethiopian people. Now, you have given them even more power to monitor your movement closely with the drone base you have provided them.

The moment Ethiopians become determined to depose you, no matter the amount of blood your armed forces will be willing to spill, the rhetoric from Washington will soon shift to demanding reform or to “step down” . You have seen this too, how America’s ties with Mubarak and Saleh, melted away in just a few weeks after the poplar uprisings in those countries. After he was deposed, that “friendly tyrant”, Saleh, was even refused entry into the United States for medical treatment. After intense negotiations they agreed to let him in but under condition that his stay be brief and confined to the hospital. What a disgrace for Saleh!

Poor Assad, who didn’t learn, from the mistakes of Mubarak and Saleh, is now trapped. He could have exited with a dignified face, had he negotiated in time to transfer power a transition government. He could have also saved the destruction of his country. Now with more than five thousand people killed, he has no way out.

Is there a hope, a model for you to emulate for a peaceful exit?

May be…..

The Apartheid South African regime of F. W. de Clerk, was a minority regime, that oppressed the majority black South Africans for many generations. The apartheid system killed, maimed and jailed thousands of black South Africans with impunity for years. Black South Africans were rendered homeless, jobless and worthless in their home country. De Clerk saw this minority dominance as unsustainable. In de Clerk’s eyes it is was expensive to see the continuous isolation of South Africa, it was expensive to continuously silence dissent, the minority had no security and peaceful future in the status quo. So he started negotiations with his staunch rival, Nelosn Mandela, while Mandella was still in prison, to release Mandella, to hold fair and free elections, and to avoid revenge even if the African National Congress (ANC) won the election. That was the BEST EXIT STRATEGY of the Apartheid regime.
Meles Zenawi, avoid this zero-sum game of you that is to eat you alive. Don’t fool yourself you will be a PM for life and your dictatorship will have no end. There is no point in accumulating wealth if you can’t inherit it to your children, or you can’t enjoy it at home or somewhere in exile.

There is no shame in admitting mistake and asking for forgiveness. Come to your senses and start a reconciliation process involving all actors in the Ethiopian society.

The 2011 Arab Springs: Lessons for Ethiopians

There were a number of popular uprisings against dictators that erupted in 2011 in the Middle Eastern and North African Arab countries: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Jordan, Bahrain, Syria, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia. So far we have witnessed that at least the dictators on Tunisia, Egypt and Libya are gone, with Gadafi for good.

There are many common features in all these countries: the dictators ruled the people for decades with absolute power, stifling democracy, imposing state of emergencies; whether they were monarchies or otherwise, the rulers were closely knit by kinship, affinity and kleptocracy; they killed, maimed, jailed and forced into exile all those who dared to dissent; they divided their people and opposition along ethnic, tribal and sectarian lines; looted their countries’ resources and became tycoons on the back of their impoverished people.

Doesn't this sound familiar to the Ethiopian dictators? Aren't they their mirror images?

What else is common in those countries? Despite the sufferings of their people the dictators were all being propped up by Western democracies, in exchange for their oil or other security considerations.

People had to rise up and many lives had to be sacrificed, even just to attract western media attention. The people of those countries had to demonstrate that they have reached the point of no return to induce any regional or global intervention.

Unless they see any potential shift in the balance of power on the ground, none of the western powers will come to our rescue just on moral grounds. In politics and international relations, national interest takes precedence over morality. Even when there is an uprising and determination on the part of the opperessed people, they will not intervene until they see the signs of power tipping on the side of the opposition (Bahrain and Saudi).

Dictator Meles Zenawi, “the Ethiopian Caligula” is today the “darling of the West”, a “friendly tyrant” being propped up with injections of billions of dollars aid money and military support. Despite the siphoning of billions by the tyrant for personal enrichment, in amounts unheard in Ethiopian history, money is still being pumped into the dictator’s coffer. They might even rescue him, as they did with Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen’s deposed dictator, when the day comes.

But we still have to come together and rise up, learning the lessons from the Arab Spring. Change in Woyane's Ethiopia will not come through elections. Never!!! We have to rise up!!!